Key Moments:
- JP Morgan lowered its October 2025 gross gaming revenue growth estimate for Macau casinos to 3 to 6 percent, down from over 11 percent previously
- Golden Week performance fell short of expectations due to Typhoon Matmo and competition from the Formula One Singapore Grand Prix
- Wynn Macau Ltd is projected to post strong quarterly EBITDA growth, while MGM China Holdings Ltd and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd may face declines
Forecast Revisions Following Weak Golden Week
JP Morgan has scaled back its anticipated year-on-year expansion for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in October 2025. The new outlook predicts growth of 3 to 6 percent, a considerable reduction from the bank’s earlier forecast of more than 11 percent. This revision comes in the wake of a Golden Week period that delivered disappointing results for Macau casinos, despite its usual role as a prime driver of tourism and gaming income from mainland China. The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays fell between October 1 and 8, with Mid-Autumn occurring later than usual on October 6.
Factors Impacting Casino Performance
Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian from JP Morgan characterized the recent underwhelming results as a “temporary setback.” They identified the primary causes as adverse weather linked to Typhoon Matmo on October 5 and subdued mass market activity coinciding with the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, which did not match prior years’ enthusiasm. The report also suggested that the scheduling of the Formula One Singapore Grand Prix from October 3 to 5 – historically held in September – may have enticed top Macau players to Singapore instead.
Quarterly Growth and Outlook by Operator
For the fourth quarter, JP Morgan now expects Macau’s GGR to rise 9 percent compared to the same period last year, down from a prior estimate of 13 percent. The report highlights that a favorable comparative period in December should fuel sector acceleration, with growth seen reaching the mid-teens in December and low teens in the first quarter of 2026.
In terms of profitability, JP Morgan projects that Macau’s casino operators will register EBITDA growth of 7 to 8 percent in the third quarter on a yearly basis, and 1 to 2 percent compared to the previous quarter. Wynn Macau Ltd is anticipated to deliver a double-digit percentage increase in EBITDA sequentially and stand out among competitors. Meanwhile, MGM China Holdings Ltd and the Macau segment of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd may experience sequential EBITDA declines in the mid-single-digit range.
| Operator | Estimated EBITDA Change (Q3 Sequential) | Estimated EBITDA Change (Year-on-Year) |
|---|---|---|
| Wynn Macau Ltd | Double-digit increase | 7 – 8% |
| MGM China Holdings Ltd | Mid-single-digit decrease | 7 – 8% |
| Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd (Macau) | Mid-single-digit decrease | 7 – 8% |
Industry Insights from CLSA
Supporting JP Morgan’s findings, CLSA Ltd reported that the Macau casino sector’s third-quarter EBITDA likely increased around 10 percent on an annual basis to approximately US$2.06 billion. CLSA also identified Wynn Macau as the leading market share gainer for the quarter, achieving a gross gaming revenue market share of up to 13.5 percent, a 1.6 percentage point rise from the previous quarter.
Ongoing Challenges in the Macau Gaming Market
Analyses from both JP Morgan and CLSA highlight ongoing competitive pressures, shifts in tourist behavior, and external events shaping gaming patterns across Macau. Operators continue to adapt as the market evolves in response to these dynamics.
- Author
Daniel Williams
